It's 12:38 PM in New York, American markets still have four hours of trading left, and Donald Trump just delivered a moment of geopolitical naivety that would make a first-year international relations student blush. According to statements reported by CNBC today, the president firmly believes that Vladimir Putin is helping him against Iran, based on assurances from his special envoy Steve Witkoff.
"Russian leaders told President Trump they don't share intelligence with Iran while it's fighting the United States and Israel," reports Witkoff. And Trump believes it. That's exactly the problem: when you take the Kremlin's promises at face value, you end up paying cash.
The Russian Art of Saying One Thing and Doing the Opposite
Read more: breaking analysis trumpsWhile European exchanges have closed their doors — Paris at 5:30 PM, London at 4:30 PM, Frankfurt at 5:30 PM — and Asian investors are still sleeping (Tokyo opens in six hours), American markets continue to digest this information. Read more: breaking analysis irans And they're right to be nervous.
Since when has Moscow stopped lying about its intelligence activities? Russia, which still denies its interference in the 2016 and 2020 American elections, which claims to have no agents in Western Europe despite regular expulsions of "diplomats," this same Russia would suddenly be transparent about its relations with Tehran?
Economic facts are stubborn: Russia and Iran have developed since 2022 a strategic partnership reinforced by Western sanctions. Bilateral trade has surged, military cooperation has multiplied, and both countries coordinate their energy strategies to circumvent embargos. In this context, imagining that Moscow shares no intelligence with Tehran borders on magical thinking.
The Cost of Presidential Gullibility
This Trumpian naivety isn't just a diplomatic problem — it's a major economic risk. Markets hate unpredictability, and a president who bases his Middle Eastern strategy on Putin's sweet words introduces dangerous volatility into the geopolitical equation.
Let's look at the numbers: since the beginning of the year, oil prices have fluctuated with Iran-Israel-US tensions. Each escalation sends prices soaring, each lull makes them crash. If Trump really believes Russia is playing on his team, he risks miscalibrating his responses to Iranian provocations — with direct consequences on global energy markets.
Institutional investors aren't fooled. While Trump trusts Putin, Gulf sovereign wealth funds (which will open tomorrow morning in Abu Dhabi at 10:00 AM local time) continue diversifying their portfolios away from American assets. They know that Trumpian geopolitics, a mixture of ego and improvisation, can explode at any moment.
Iran, the Big Winner of This Confusion
Because ultimately, who benefits from this masquerade? Iran, obviously. Tehran can continue its destabilizing activities in the Middle East knowing that Washington systematically underestimates the Russian support it receives. While Trump congratulates himself on his "good relations" with Putin, Iranian Revolutionary Guards are probably receiving Russian intelligence on American and Israeli military movements in the region.
This informational asymmetry is costly. Not just in human lives — though that's most important — but also in economic efficiency. American sanctions against Iran lose their bite when Moscow helps Tehran circumvent them. Western investments in the Middle East become riskier when Washington doesn't understand the real alliances at play.
Markets Don't Lie
It's revealing that this statement drops on a Friday afternoon, when European markets are closed and Asia sleeps. As if the Trump administration hoped to limit the impact on prices. But trading algorithms never sleep, and neither do institutional investors.
Tomorrow, when Tokyo opens at 9:00 AM local time, then Shanghai at 9:30 AM, Asian traders will have had time to digest this information. And they'll probably draw the right conclusions: an American president who trusts Putin on Iran is a president who doesn't understand the geopolitical stakes of his era.
The economic reality is simple: Russia and Iran are circumstantial allies united by their opposition to the Western order. Pretending otherwise condemns you to costly strategic errors. Markets have already integrated this data. It's time the White House did the same.
When European exchanges reopen Monday morning, they'll have had the entire weekend to reflect on this new demonstration of geopolitical amateurism. Savvy investors already know what to think: presidential gullibility is never a good investment.