Pete Hegseth just offered us a perfect example of what I call "barroom diplomacy." Yesterday, the Defense Secretary declared that "the U.S. military would prevent Iran from strangling the Strait of Hormuz," according to the New York Times. Magnificent. Except when pressed on concrete details, the man dodged with stunning aplomb: "no indication of how long it would take before the Navy could escort civilian ships."
In other words: we're going to do something, but we don't know what, how, or when. This is the trademark of an administration that confuses communication with governance.
The Art of Promising the Impossible
Read more: breaking analysis middleThe Strait of Hormuz sees 21% of the world's oil transit through it daily. Read more: breaking analysis mojtaba When Iran threatens to close it — which it has done regularly for forty years — prices panic and chancelleries tremble. But between threatening and acting lies a chasm that Tehran knows perfectly well.
Iran knows it can't really close the strait without economically self-destructing. The United States knows that direct military intervention would trigger regional conflagration with unpredictable consequences. So everyone plays poker, and Hegseth just showed his hand by announcing he doesn't have any cards.
Because really, what are we talking about concretely? Escorting every tanker with destroyers? Establishing a no-fly zone? Bombing Iranian coastal installations? The Defense Secretary says nothing about this, and for good reason: he probably knows nothing about it himself.
The Navy, That Unknown Entity
This ignorance of operational realities reveals a deeper problem. Hegseth, a former Fox News host turned minister, is apparently discovering that running the Pentagon isn't just about snapping fingers in front of cameras.
The U.S. Fifth Fleet, based in Bahrain, certainly has considerable firepower. But permanently escorting the dozens of ships that cross the strait daily would require massive, costly, and politically explosive naval deployment. Not to mention that Iran has anti-ship missiles, mini-submarines, and fast patrol boats perfectly adapted to asymmetric warfare in these shallow waters.
In short, the mission Hegseth assigns himself isn't technically impossible, but it would require military and financial mobilization that neither Congress nor American public opinion is ready to accept. Unless, of course, the objective isn't to act but to make people believe you're going to act.
Red Line Syndrome
This posturing reminds me painfully of Obama's "red lines" in Syria or Trump's incendiary tweets about North Korea. Every time, the same pattern: rattle the saber to reassure allies and impress adversaries, then hope nobody takes you at your word.
The problem is that this strategy of hollow intimidation eventually erodes American credibility. When you multiply threats without executing them, you no longer deter anyone — you make yourself ridiculous.
Iran has understood this perfectly. For decades, it has played with Western nerves by regularly waving the strait threat, knowing full well that nobody will really dare confront it on this terrain. And here's Hegseth falling into the trap by escalating without having the means for his ambitions.
Infantilizing Citizens
But the most annoying thing about this affair is the underlying contempt for citizens' intelligence. Does Hegseth really take us for idiots? Does he seriously believe we'll swallow his martial promises without questioning their feasibility?
This tendency to treat voters like children who are reassured with magic formulas crosses all parties and all eras. "We will create jobs," "we will reduce deficits," "we will defeat terrorism"... And now "we will prevent Iran from closing the strait." Always the same grandiose promises, never the concrete means.
Fool's Diplomacy
Ultimately, this Hegseth outburst perfectly illustrates the drift of American foreign policy: lots of communication, little strategy. We prefer announcements to patient negotiations, bombastic declarations to laborious compromises.
Result: tensions rise, markets panic, and the real problems — Iranian nuclear proliferation, regional instability, energy dependence — remain intact. But at least voters got their daily dose of displayed firmness.
Iran will continue its provocations, the United States will continue its posturing, and the Strait of Hormuz will remain what it has always been: a strategic passage where everyone has an interest in nothing really happening. Except now, thanks to Hegseth, we officially know that America has no plan. That's something, at least.