Mojtaba Khamenei has just taken the reins of Iran and, surprise! Read more: mojtaba khamenei plays He's decided to start his reign exactly like his father: by threatening everyone. Today, the new Supreme Leader ordered the Strait of Hormuz to remain closed and demanded the immediate closure of all American military bases in the Middle East, specifying that "these bases will be attacked."
The result? Brent crude jumped to $100 per barrel. Congratulations, Mojtaba: with one declaration, you've just reminded the entire world why 20% of global oil transiting through this little 34-kilometer-wide stretch of sea can transform any Iranian leader into master of the world... for exactly 48 hours.
The Family Recipe: Threats + Hormuz = International Attention
Let's be honest: Mojtaba Khamenei isn't inventing anything. His father Ali spent 35 years waving the same threat over the Strait of Hormuz every time sanctions bit a little too hard. It's been Iran's trump card for decades: "Cut off our taps, we'll cut off yours." Simple, effective, and it works every time.
But here's what's fascinating in 2026: international reactions reveal exactly where global power dynamics stand. The United States, which spent the Trump years promising to "destroy Iran" at the slightest provocation? Radio silence. France, which boasted of its independent diplomacy? Catherine Vautrin coldly announces that "France is sending no ships to the Strait of Hormuz." Translation: "Figure it out without us."
The Western Split: Between Displayed Firmness and Real Prudence
This French reaction is particularly delicious. Read more: tehran blackmails wall For years, Paris criticized Washington for its "too aggressive" approach with Iran, advocating dialogue and diplomacy. Result? As soon as Tehran bares its fangs, France hides behind its neutrality. It's the classic European syndrome: giving geopolitical lessons when everything's fine, disappearing when you have to step up.
The Americans, meanwhile, seem to have learned something from the Iraqi and Afghan fiascos. No angry Biden tweets, no threats of preemptive strikes. Just... nothing. Either it's strategic wisdom, or it's paralysis. Either way, it's a radical change from usual Washington reflexes.
China, the Silent Big Winner
While the West hesitates between firmness and prudence, guess who will probably negotiate discreetly with Tehran? Beijing. China massively imports Iranian oil despite sanctions, and a closed Hormuz doesn't suit them any more than others. But unlike Europeans who moralize and Americans who threaten, the Chinese will simply propose a deal.
That's the genius of Chinese diplomacy in 2026: while others perform theater, Beijing does business. And when oil drops back below $80 in a few weeks (because yes, it will drop), guess who will have strengthened their Middle Eastern positions?
Canada, Privileged Spectator of Its Own Irrelevance
And Canada in all this? Nowhere, as usual on Middle Eastern issues. Ottawa will probably issue a statement calling for "all parties to engage in dialogue" and "respect international maritime law." Very helpful. Meanwhile, gas prices will climb in Calgary and Vancouver, and Canadians will once again discover that their country, despite its oil reserves, remains dependent on geopolitical upheavals 10,000 kilometers from home.
The Real Question: What Next?
Because here's the problem with the Khamenei Jr. strategy: it works... once. Closing Hormuz is like brandishing a nuclear weapon: it's impressive, but if you actually do it, you trigger a war you can't win. Iran knows it, the Americans know it, everyone knows it.
So what will happen? Probably the same thing as with papa Khamenei: a few weeks of tensions, secret negotiations, a shaky compromise, and we'll do it again in six months. Oil will drop back down, American bases will stay where they are, and Mojtaba will have proven he knows how to play in the big leagues.
Iran, Eternal Adolescent of Geopolitics
What's striking about this crisis is how much Iran remains prisoner of its own rhetoric. Since 1979, Tehran has played the same role: the radical opponent who threatens but never really acts. It's effective for mobilizing its base and negotiating concessions, but it condemns the country to remain eternally in opposition.
Mojtaba Khamenei had a chance to surprise the world by adopting a different approach from his father. He chose the easy path: recycling old recipes. It's understandable — why change a method that works? — but it's also profoundly predictable.
Verdict: 7/10 for short-term effectiveness, 2/10 for originality. Mojtaba Khamenei proves that in geopolitics as in family, we often end up resembling our parents. Even when you're running a theocracy.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What actions has Mojtaba Khamenei taken as the new Supreme Leader of Iran?
Mojtaba Khamenei has ordered the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and demanded the immediate closure of all American military bases in the Middle East, threatening that "these bases will be attacked."
Q: How did the oil market react to Khamenei's threats?
Following Khamenei's declaration, Brent crude oil prices surged to $100 per barrel, highlighting the significant impact of the Strait of Hormuz on global oil supply.
Q: How does Khamenei's approach compare to his father's?
Mojtaba Khamenei's strategy mirrors that of his father, Ali Khamenei, who also used threats regarding the Strait of Hormuz to gain international attention and leverage during times of sanctions.