Thirteen days. That's how long it took for this new Middle Eastern crisis to transform into a cash machine for energy traders. As US markets prepare to close in less than an hour (4:00 PM ET), oil prices maintain their geopolitical risk premium, and nobody seems in a hurry to calm things down.
The choreography is now well-rehearsed: Donald Trump and Iran's new supreme leader exchange their martial declarations, analysts cautiously mention "little relief for energy markets" according to Bloomberg, and investors cash in. Read more: europe plays energy Read more: trump iran play Meanwhile, Europeans sleep on their positions—Paris, London, and Frankfurt having closed hours ago—while Asia waits its turn tomorrow morning.
The Art of Maintaining Tension
What's striking about this crisis is its perfect calibration. Neither Trump nor his Iranian counterpart seems willing to cross the point of no return, but both maintain enough pressure to justify market nervousness. This posture is no accident: it responds to precise economic logics.
For Trump, a controlled energy crisis presents obvious tactical advantages. It justifies his "America First" energy policies, reinforces his security rhetoric, and provides a pretext for increasing domestic production. US shale producers, who massively supported his campaign, aren't complaining.
On the Iranian side, the new leadership seems to have learned from past mistakes. Rather than provoking a brutal oil shock that would mobilize the international community, Tehran maintains constant but measured pressure. Result: oil revenues remain high without triggering a hostile coalition.
The Geography of Profits
This crisis reveals above all the new geography of energy profits. While European markets sleep, decisions are made in New York and ripple through Asia. Traders operating on American time zones capture most of the volatility, while their European counterparts suffer opening gaps.
The numbers speak for themselves: since the beginning of this crisis, trading volumes on oil futures contracts have exploded on NYMEX, while European exchanges struggle to keep pace. This temporal asymmetry creates considerable arbitrage opportunities for funds with adequate infrastructure.
Even more revealing: American efforts to "control oil prices" mentioned by Bloomberg don't aim to lower them, but to prevent them from soaring too brutally. The difference is crucial. Washington doesn't want to kill the golden goose, just prevent it from laying eggs too quickly.
The Political Economy of Permanent Crisis
This situation perfectly illustrates the evolution of energy capitalism since 2008. Geopolitical crises are no longer accidents to be resolved quickly, but semi-permanent states to be managed for maximum value extraction.
Central banks created the conditions for this extreme financialization by maintaining low rates for years. Result: investors rush toward any asset offering volatility and returns. Oil in crisis checks all the boxes.
This logic explains why none of the protagonists seems in a hurry to defuse the situation. Trump finds justification for his domestic energy policies. Iran maintains its oil revenues at an acceptable level. Traders make their margins. Only final consumers pay the bill.
The Silent Losers
Because there are indeed losers in this equation. European economies, already weakened by their hazardous energy choices, bear the full brunt of this imported volatility. Their industrial companies see production costs fluctuate according to presidential tweets and Tehran communiqués.
More serious: this organized instability compromises any long-term energy planning. How can you invest in infrastructure when prices can double or collapse depending on the geopolitical mood of the moment? This permanent uncertainty favors short-term solutions at the expense of structural investments.
Oil-importing emerging countries also pay a heavy price. Their currencies depreciate, their trade balances deteriorate, and their populations suffer imported inflation. But their voice counts little in this great game between powers.
The Programmed Impasse
Thirteen days after the beginning of this crisis, we must acknowledge it's settling in for the long haul. Not by accident, but by design. All main actors find their advantage in it, with the notable exception of final consumers who have no voice in the matter.
This situation reveals one of the major contradictions of our era: while the energy transition would require stability and predictability to attract necessary investments, the current system privileges volatility and instability because they're more profitable in the short term.
Tomorrow, when Tokyo and Shanghai reopen, the same mechanics will restart. Positions will reconstitute, risk premiums will maintain, and the crisis will continue its merry way. Until a new geopolitical configuration offers better profit opportunities.
Meanwhile, the meters are running. For some in the right direction, for others in the wrong. But that's the whole art of modern energy geopolitics: transforming instability into rent, and crisis into a business model.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: How did the recent Middle Eastern crisis affect oil prices?
The recent crisis has led to a significant increase in oil prices as energy traders capitalize on the geopolitical risk premium. Analysts suggest that there is "little relief for energy markets," indicating that the situation is likely to maintain high prices for the foreseeable future.
Q: What strategies are being used by Trump and Iran in this crisis?
Both Trump and Iran's new leadership are employing a strategy of maintaining tension without crossing a critical threshold. This approach allows them to justify market nervousness while reaping economic benefits, with Trump reinforcing his energy policies and Iran ensuring high oil revenues without provoking international backlash.
Q: How does this crisis impact energy markets in different regions?
The crisis has created a disparity in energy market reactions, with decisions being made in New York while European markets remain inactive during their nighttime hours. As a result, the geography of energy profits is shifting, with American traders benefiting from the ongoing tensions while European markets are left to react later.