While Tokyo finishes its lunch break and Shanghai prepares to close in a few hours, Donald Trump just delivered an involuntary masterclass on his conception of international alliances. Read more: europe refuses bill His meeting today with the Japanese Prime Minister, where he praised Japan's efforts in "stepping up" to secure the Strait of Hormuz while contrasting this with NATO, reveals a truth that the diplomatic establishment still refuses to admit: for Trump, an ally who pays is worth more than an ally who shares your values.
The Strait of Hormuz, geopolitical barometer
The timing of this declaration is no coincidence. While European markets are still sleeping and Abu Dhabi won't reopen for another three hours, it's precisely in this Asia-Pacific zone that the world's energy future is being decided. The Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil transits, has become the thermometer of geopolitical tensions with Iran.
Read more: breaking analysis washingtonsAccording to CNBC reports, Trump explicitly praised Japanese engagement in this strategic region, recognition that contrasts sharply with his recurring criticisms of NATO. This differential treatment isn't accidental: it reflects an implacable economic logic that European chancelleries would do well to decipher.
The brutal arithmetic of Trumpian diplomacy
Japan spends about 1.35% of its GDP on defense, less than NATO's 2% target. Yet Tokyo escapes Trump's wrath. Why? Because Japan buys American. Massively. From F-35 fighters to Aegis missile defense systems, not to mention trade agreements favorable to American exports, Tokyo has understood the rules of the game: in Trump's universe, loyalty is measured in dollars, not declarations of principle.
This transactional logic explains why Trump can simultaneously criticize NATO – where several European countries actually meet the 2% GDP target – while praising Japan, which spends proportionally less. Europe pays for its own defense but still too often buys French, German, or British. Japan, however, buys American for its security.
Markets don't lie
This differential treatment is already visible in financial flows. While European stock exchanges remain closed, Asian investors are integrating this new geopolitical reality. Japanese and American defense sectors benefit from a stability premium that their European counterparts lack, constantly under threat from presidential tweets.
The Tokyo Stock Exchange, which will resume in less than an hour after its lunch break, reflects this confidence: Japanese defense company stocks systematically outperform their European equivalents since Trump's return. Investors have understood that in this new world, it's better to be a privileged client than a historic ally.
Iran, the great absent from the equation
Curiously, in this Strait of Hormuz geopolitics, Iran remains the great absent from today's Trumpian discourse. Yet it's precisely the Islamic Republic that de facto controls this strategic passage and can, with a snap of its fingers, paralyze 20% of global oil supplies.
This omission isn't fortuitous. Trump knows perfectly well that criticizing Iran while praising Japanese efforts in the region would amount to admitting that his "maximum pressure" policy has failed. Iran still controls the strait, still influences the region, and American allies must now compensate for this reality through their increased military presence.
Europe faces its illusions
For Europe, this declaration should sound like a brutal wake-up call. For decades, European chancelleries believed they could play both sides: criticize American methods while benefiting from American protection. Trump is signaling today that this era is over.
NATO, in this logic, is no longer an alliance of shared values but a client club. Those who buy American and support American economic interests benefit from presidential benevolence. The others, even if they meet their financial obligations, remain under surveillance.
The Japanese lesson
Japan has perfectly assimilated this new reality. By engaging in the Strait of Hormuz, Tokyo isn't just securing its energy supplies: it's buying its geopolitical tranquility. Every Japanese ship in the Persian Gulf is an investment in the bilateral relationship with Washington.
This successful strategy should inspire Europe, but it implies a painful choice: accepting to become a privileged client rather than an equal partner. For nations built on the idea of sovereignty, it's a bitter pill to swallow.
As Shanghai prepares to close and Abu Dhabi will soon wake up, this Trump declaration resonates as a warning: in the world to come, alliances are negotiated in real time, at market price. Japan has understood this. Europe continues to believe in grand principles. At its own risk and peril.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Why did Trump praise Japan's efforts in the Strait of Hormuz?
Trump praised Japan's engagement in the Strait of Hormuz during his meeting with the Japanese Prime Minister, highlighting Japan's contributions to securing this strategic region. This praise contrasts with his criticisms of NATO, reflecting his belief that financial contributions are more valuable than shared values in international alliances.
Q: How much does Japan spend on defense compared to NATO countries?
Japan spends about 1.35% of its GDP on defense, which is below NATO's target of 2%. Despite this, Trump has refrained from criticizing Japan, as the country significantly purchases American military equipment and engages in favorable trade agreements.
Q: What is the significance of the Strait of Hormuz in global geopolitics?
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical geopolitical area through which approximately 20% of the world's oil transits. Its stability is essential for global energy security, making it a focal point for international diplomatic efforts and tensions, particularly with Iran.