Pete Hegseth just discovered what every strategist has known for decades: controlling the Strait of Hormuz means holding the global economy by the ankles. His promise, announced yesterday according to the New York Times, to prevent Iran from "blocking" this vital passage for global oil exports might have been impressive... in 1987. Today, it sounds like an admission of powerlessness disguised as firmness.
The Art of Promising Without Committing
When a Defense Secretary announces that "the U.S. military will prevent Iran from strangling the Strait of Hormuz" without specifying how, when, or with what means, we're no longer in military strategy but in political communication. This absence of details isn't an oversight: it's the tacit recognition that Washington has no miracle solution against an adversary that has made this chokepoint its primary geopolitical card.
Read more: breaking analysis hegsethsIran doesn't threaten to close Hormuz on a whim. Read more: breaking analysis washingtons Tehran knows perfectly well that 21% of global oil transits through these 34 kilometers of width. A simple Iranian military exercise is enough to make crude prices soar. An actual closure? That would mean the collapse of energy markets and a guaranteed global recession. The mullahs don't even need to fire a shot: the mere threat makes stock exchanges tremble.
The Navy Faces Iranian Asymmetry
Hegseth mentions escorting civilian ships with the U.S. Navy, as if we were still in the era of the "tanker war" of the 1980s. But Iran in 2026 is no longer Khomeini's Iran. Tehran has developed a formidable asymmetric strategy: naval mines, anti-ship missiles, fast patrol boats, underwater drones. Against this arsenal, American destroyers look like elephants chasing wasps.
Even more embarrassing: Iran can close Hormuz without even violating international law. It's enough to declare "military exercises" in its territorial waters, multiply "security checks," or invoke "environmental measures." What will the Navy do then? Sink Iranian patrol boats in Iranian waters? Bomb coastal installations? Every American military escalation would give Tehran the perfect justification to completely close the strait.
Europe, the Great Absentee
What's striking about this announcement is the total absence of coordination with Europeans, who are most concerned by energy security. While Hegseth plays the lone cowboy, the EU continues its ostrich policy, hoping Americans will solve the problem for them. This European strategic naivety ultimately suits everyone: Washington can play world policeman, Tehran can wave the American scarecrow, and Brussels can continue pretending geopolitics doesn't exist.
The Real Iranian Trap
Iran doesn't seek to permanently close Hormuz – that would be shooting itself in the economic foot. Tehran wants to maintain a permanent sword of Damocles over energy markets. Every geopolitical tension, every additional sanction, every American martial declaration drives up oil prices and paradoxically strengthens Iran's position.
By promising to prevent a blockade that will probably never happen, Hegseth falls into the trap set by Tehran's strategists. He legitimizes their threats by taking them seriously, while revealing the absence of credible American solutions. This is exactly what the Iranians wanted: forcing Washington to publicly acknowledge their capacity for harm.
The Deterrence Impasse
The real question isn't whether America can prevent Iran from closing Hormuz – it can't without triggering a regional war with unpredictable consequences. The real question is why Washington continues making promises it can't keep, thus fueling a cycle of escalation that benefits all actors except the citizens who will pay the bill at the pump.
Hegseth would have been more honest by acknowledging an obvious truth: in a multipolar world, even the world's leading military power can no longer dictate its law everywhere. But this lucidity would require abandoning the myth of American hegemony. Clearly, we're not there yet.
Meanwhile, oil markets will continue dancing to the rhythm of Iranian declarations, and drivers worldwide will pay the price of this powerlessness disguised as firmness.