There's something deeply revealing about this day of March 23, 2026. While explosions echo through Tehran and the inhabitants of the Iranian capital find themselves plunged into darkness, our Western leaders continue to play a score they've been botching for decades: that of controlled escalation.
Today's Israeli strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, followed by Trump's ultimatum demanding the complete reopening of the Strait of Hormuz before Monday evening, perfectly illustrate this illusion of strength that actually conceals gaping strategic impotence.
The Trap of Symmetrical Escalation
Read more: trump replays gulfLet's start with the obvious truth no one wants to see: every Israeli strike strengthens Iran's position. Yes, you read that correctly. By attacking Tehran's energy infrastructure, Israel is offering Iran exactly what the mullah regime needs to justify its strategy of controlled chaos.
After all, what has Iran been seeking for years? Not the total war it would lose, but permanent destabilization that allows it to weigh on the global economy while positioning itself as a victim. Every power outage in Tehran becomes additional proof of "Zionist aggression" for internal propaganda, every explosion reinforces national cohesion around the regime.
The head of the International Energy Agency isn't wrong when he states that "the global energy crisis caused by the war is now worse than the oil shocks of the 1970s." This sentence, reported by the New York Times, should make our strategists think: we're reproducing exactly the same mistakes from fifty years ago.
Trump's Ultimatum: When Firmness Becomes Weakness
The American presidential ultimatum on the Strait of Hormuz reveals an even deeper misunderstanding of the geopolitical mechanisms at play. Read more: selling geopolitical mirages Trump threatens to "strike Iranian power plants if the Strait of Hormuz isn't fully reopened before Monday evening." This declaration, intended to appear firm, actually betrays a troubling ignorance of Iranian psychology.
Iran doesn't close the strait out of caprice or weakness. It does so because it's its only real leverage against a Western coalition that possesses overwhelming military superiority. Threatening to destroy its power plants is handing it on a silver platter the perfect excuse to radicalize its position even further.
More serious: this threat reveals that Washington still hasn't understood that Iran is playing a different game. Where the West seeks rapid conflict resolution, Tehran bets on quagmire. Where we want clear victories, they cultivate permanent ambiguity.
Europe, Spectator of Its Own Marginalization
In this escalation, European absence is deafening. While the United States and Israel multiply strikes and ultimatums, the European Union shines through its silence. This passivity isn't prudence, it's abdication.
Because Europe is already paying the heavy price of this energy crisis. Our industries are running at reduced capacity, our citizens see their bills exploding, our governments juggle with declining budgets. But rather than developing an autonomous strategy, we content ourselves with suffering the consequences of decisions made in Washington and Tel Aviv.
This strategic dependence reveals Europe's infantilization in the face of major crises. We've abandoned any proper geopolitical ambition to take refuge in the illusory comfort of Atlantic alignment. Result: we're the first to suffer from tensions, but the last consulted on solutions.
The Real Question: Who Benefits from Chaos?
Behind the martial communiqués and declarations of firmness, a disturbing question emerges: who really has an interest in maintaining this tension? Because if the objective were truly to neutralize the Iranian threat, our leaders would go about it differently.
Iran profits from the energy chaos it helps create. Every barrel of oil that no longer passes through the Strait of Hormuz drives up global prices, enriching other producers and reinforcing Tehran's geopolitical influence. Paradoxically, Western sanctions have transformed Iran into a master of controlled chaos.
On the Western side, the arms industry and energy lobbies aren't the last to benefit from this permanent instability. As for political leaders, nothing beats a good external crisis to divert attention from domestic problems.
The Impasse of Binary Thinking
The tragedy of this escalation is that it reveals our elites' inability to break free from a binary reading grid inherited from the Cold War. Faced with Iran, we perpetually oscillate between two extremes: negotiation at any cost or military confrontation.
This Manichean approach blinds us to intermediate solutions that could actually defuse the crisis. Rather than seeking to diplomatically isolate the Iranian regime while preserving the interests of the Iranian people, we fuel a cycle of violence that only benefits the extremes on both sides.
Monday's explosions in Tehran are not a sign of Western strength, but an admission of our inability to conceive a coherent strategy against an adversary that has made instability its stock in trade. As long as we continue to react rather than act, Iran will keep the initiative in this geopolitical chess game where we're always playing one move behind.
The real question is no longer who will win this escalation, but how long our societies will accept to pay the price of this impotence disguised as firmness.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What happened in Tehran on March 23, 2026?
On March 23, 2026, explosions were reported in Tehran, leading to widespread power outages in the Iranian capital. This event coincided with Israeli strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, highlighting the ongoing tensions in the region.
Q: How do Israeli strikes affect Iran's position?
Israeli strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure inadvertently strengthen Iran's position by providing the regime with justification for its strategy of controlled chaos. Each attack allows Iran to portray itself as a victim of "Zionist aggression," which bolsters national cohesion and internal propaganda.
Q: What was Trump's ultimatum regarding the Strait of Hormuz?
Trump issued an ultimatum demanding the complete reopening of the Strait of Hormuz by Monday evening, threatening to strike Iranian power plants if his demands were not met. This ultimatum reflects a misunderstanding of the geopolitical dynamics at play and the psychological factors influencing Iranian responses.